Hence the wisdom of shaking up that lineup as much as they did by adding Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann. Does that portend an improvement this year?Ĭkahrl: Sadly, you don’t get to carry over any accrued, unmet expectations for wins. In a weird way, was 2016 an example of the Plexiglas Principle for them? Their actual record only dropped by 2 wins from 2015, but they were down 10 Pythagorean wins in 2016 after a 22-win Pythagorean improvement the year before. And we haven’t even mentioned a team (the Los Angeles Angels) that contains the potential G.O.A.T.Īnyway, the projections say the Astros should be the favorites, so let’s start with them. Neil ( Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight senior sportswriter): I think the AL West is a really fascinating division because the team that is probably the best in it right now (Houston) finished third last year, the third-best team (Texas) finished first, and those two teams are sandwiched around one (Seattle) that has had the hardest playoff luck possible in recent years. Sources: Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport, Las Vegas Review-Journal The transcript below has been edited.īased on projected wins or over/under win totals. Today, we focus on the American League West with MLB editor Christina Kahrl and FiveThirtyEight baseball columnist Rob Arthur. In honor of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, which starts April 2, FiveThirtyEight is assembling some of our favorite baseball writers to chat about what’s ahead.
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